Small Fish, Big Pond

I added the “yet” at the end of the blog title because that reflects the findings of the survey and that survey is hardly surprising. By leaving off the “yet” the title mirrors the hundreds of business-tech stories today, and blurs the truth.

This is a perfect example of what I’ve mentioned many times before that the tech community gets too wrapped up itself and forgets how the rest of the world sees technology. Survey says:

6% are going to Win 7 in 2009 (ie immediately)
34% are likely upgrading in 2010
60% have no definitive plans.

Tech blogs and news sites are focusing on the 60% number and changing it to the statement “60% of businesses AREN’T upgrading to Windows 7.”

In reality this is an entirely normal breakdown of businesses trepidation at upgrading their computer infrastructure. Considering that Win XP –> Win 7 also involves a huge requirements upgrade (nearly 8yrs of computer evolution) I’m surprised that 40% are switching over in the first year; time to invest in Dell computers. Although I shouldn’t be too surprised, my personal upgrade path for Vista was inline with the 40% group, for Win 7 I was onboard through beta and will convert at least one computer immediately.

Of course I believe Win 7 is really nothing more than a service pack of Vista, and since I was on Vista a year late and missed all the compatibility issues I’ve never had any bad experiences with that.

My point is that this idiotic story is just a way for tech media to make a big deal out of nothing. Some are saying it puts Microsoft on shaky ground since Vista didn’t go over well (they have 90% of the OS market, they’re not in trouble), other are even saying that businesses may go to new competition like the new Google Chrome OS, which is probably the dumbest comment I’ve heard in regards to this story so far. If you think there’s apprehension about Windows 7 ask a business what they think about an OS whose only specs and capabilities consist of some blog announcements and a lot of speculation.

I bet if the same poll was reissued with another option that said “Are you going to switch from Windows to ANY other competitor in the next two years?” the percentage would be 6% or lower.

Ignore the media hype, this is a non-news item. Businesses are always resistant to change, and hesitant to upgrade in the first year or two. It’s actually good business policy because by staying off the bleeding edge you don’t get cut by the initial growing pains. Once the bugs are fully worked out you’ll see a lot more adoption (so long as companies are willing to update 2001 era computers to something a bit more modern to run Win 7).